Bob Belvin has broadcast football and basketball games for the Ohio Valley Conference for over a decade, including a long-standing run alongside Kevin Ingram in the OVC’s ESPN3 Football Game of the Week. Each week this season he will share his thoughts matchups and happenings around the OVC and FCS.
A few surprises last week in OVC play, but at this point is anything a surprise? Stats from Spring 2021 games are now almost obsolete. Simply compare rosters and compare to six months ago and the change is dramatic. And now that most OVC teams have completed their non-conference schedules the real comparisons and statistic digging can begin.
Southeast Missouri at Austin Peay (3:00 PM, ESPN3)
Last week we had the “Struggle Bowl.” When SEMO visits Austin Peay on Saturday the game should be called the “Mystery Bowl.” These two teams are genuinely hard to figure out at this point. One man’s opinion: SEMO has the most at-risk Saturday. They have already dropped a conference game while the Govs have yet to play one. Both teams are coming off bad losses, not a cliché at all. Despite outrushing most opponents, SEMO is an atrocious 29% on 3rd down conversions, compared to 42% for Austin Peay who has nearly twice as many attempts. Can’t say enough about Geno Hess who is clearly the shining star of SEMO’s offense. The Govs are still looking for a break-through performance on offense, be it from Draylen Ellis, Baniko Harley or Ahmaad Turner. Each of the last four games between these two have been decided by seven points or less: Expect the same on Saturday.
Murray State at UT Martin (2:00 PM, ESPN+)
This is the game of the season in the OVC so far and will go a long way to deciding the conference champion. UT Martin keeps moving up the charts following their bye last week. Murray State is coming off a win over Eastern Illinois. These two teams, statistically speaking, are so balanced it is hard to pick a winner. Consider UT Martin, who has only a five-yard differential in running and passing yards per game. And the two are nearly dead even in what they give up rushing per game, 106 yards for Murray State and 103 yards for UT Martin. Murray State won in March, for what that’s worth. Homecoming for UT Martin, a late field goal is the difference here.
Tennessee Tech at North Carolina Central (2:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
I can’t help but think given their win last week, the Techsters would prefer to take their slither of momentum and apply it in league play but that will not be the case this week. Tech has thrown for nearly twice as many yards as it has gained on the ground, and for a win that number must carry forward Saturday against the Eagles of the MEAC. Through the air Daurvis Richard to Ryan McDaniel (leading receiver in the MEAC) has been the most productive combination for NCAA; for Tech its leading receiver Quinton Cross and QB Willie Miller, who is expected to start for Tech. This is the last non-league matchup for Tennessee Tech and the first ever meeting between the schools.